"Even if someone knew the entire physical history of the world, and every mental event were identical with a physical, it would not follow that he could predict or explain a single mental event (so described, of course)." ~ Donald Davidson
Now that the rally appears to be losing steam, the predictions for a "retest" of the March 9 low (or even a plunge below that mark) are gaining in velocity. Perhaps these people making predictions are more brave, more knowledgeable or more foolish than I; but what good does it do to make such predictions anyway? Will those making the predictions act on them? Do they manage money? Are they trying to sell books/newsletters/advertising?
To affirm my own thoughts on prediction, I looked through some of my favorite philosophy books for some support. I thought you might like to read some of them and form your own conclusions with regard to making predictions (of course you will notice that my bias is against making and acting upon predictions).
"It is clear, then that the idea of a fixed method, or of a fixed theory of rationality, rests on too naive a view of man and his social surroundings. To those who look at the rich material provided by history, and who are not intent on impoverishing it in order to please their lower instincts, their craving for intellectual security in the form of clarity, precision, 'objectivity', 'truth', it will become clear that there is only one principle that can be defended under all stages of human development. It is the principle: anything goes." ~ Paul Feyerabend
"Too keen an eye for pattern will find it anywhere." ~ T.L. Fine
"The supreme paradox of all thought is the attempt to discover something that thought cannot think." ~ Soren Kierkegaard
"We must not, therefore, wonder whether we really perceive a world, we must instead say: the world is what we perceive. . . . To seek the essence of perception is to declare that perception is, not presumed true, but defined as access to truth." ~ Maurice Merleau-Ponty
"A likely impossibility is always preferable to an unconvincing possibility." ~ Aristotle
"Until a man has expressed his emotion, he does not yet know what emotion it is. The act of expressing it is therefore an exploration of his own emotions. He is trying to find out what these emotions are." ~ R.G. Collingwood
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge." ~ Lau Tzu
"The difference between what the most and the least learned people know is inexpressibly trivial in relation to that which is unknown." ~ Albert Einstein
"A hidden connection is stronger than an obvious one." ~ Heraclitus
"It is the mark of an educated mind to rest satisfied with the degree of precision which the nature of the subject admits and not to seek exactness where only an approximation is possible." ~ Aristotle
"Men in the game are blind to what men looking on see clearly." ~ Chinese Proverb
Comments